By Mark Jordan

In recent years, criminal justice reform has gained traction in the United States across party lines. Many advocates and policymakers are recognizing the need for a more rehabilitative, rather than punitive, approach, as well as the importance of fair sentencing and post-release support. With the possibility of a Trump presidency on the horizon, understanding his policy stance, past actions, and likely directions in the criminal justice reform arena is critical for stakeholders on all sides. A Trump administration would likely affect several key areas of criminal justice reform, including sentencing guidelines, prison conditions, and the reentry process for formerly incarcerated individuals.

The First Step Act: Trump’s Criminal Justice Legacy

During his first term, Trump signed the First Step Act into law in 2018, marking a significant step toward reform. The First Step Act introduced substantial changes, including:

• Sentencing Reforms: Reducing mandatory minimum sentences for certain nonviolent drug offenses, allowing judges more discretion, and retroactively applying the Fair Sentencing Act of 2010.

• Good Time Credit Expansion: Allowing limited categories of federal inmates to earn additional good-time credits, potentially reducing sentences for thousands of prisoners.

• Rehabilitation Programs: Incentivizing inmates to participate in programs that reduce recidivism, such as job training and substance abuse programs.

For many reform advocates, the First Step Act was seen as an encouraging, if sorely limited, initial reform. However, questions remain about whether Trump’s role in advancing the act was driven by a deep commitment to systemic change or as a move to gain bipartisan support. It was his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, who actually championed the measure. Understanding the implications of another Trump term requires assessing whether he would double down on the First Step Act or if his criminal justice policy would take a different turn.

Federal Sentencing and Prosecution: A Tougher Stance?

Despite his administration’s role in the First Step Act, Trump often maintained a “tough on crime” approach during his first term, emphasizing the importance of law and order. If he adopts a similar stance in a new term, he may push for:

• Stricter Sentencing: Reinstating or expanding mandatory minimums for certain offenses, especially drug-related crimes. This would potentially counteract some gains made by the First Step Act and add to the federal prison population.

• Increased Federal Prosecutions: The Trump administration previously targeted specific crime areas with heightened enforcement, such as drug trafficking and immigration offenses. A second term might see a return to these tactics, potentially leading to higher incarceration rates, especially for marginalized communities.

While many Republican lawmakers support reform that emphasizes rehabilitation over long-term imprisonment, Trump’s traditional “law and order” rhetoric may clash with such approaches, potentially influencing federal prosecutors to pursue harsher sentences in certain cases.

The War on Drugs: A Renewed Focus on Drug Trafficking?

Trump has voiced support for severe penalties for drug-related crimes, at times even advocating for the death penalty for drug traffickers. His stance reflects a belief that harsher penalties can deter crime and promote public safety. A renewed Trump administration could seek:

• Heightened Penalties for Drug Crimes: Expanding federal oversight on drug-related crimes and increasing mandatory minimums for certain drug offenses.

• Increased DEA Funding and Enforcement: Strengthening the Drug Enforcement Administration’s (DEA) role in pursuing drug traffickers, potentially shifting resources away from harm-reduction programs that focus on treatment and rehabilitation.

Prison Conditions and Rehabilitation Programs: A Question of Priorities

The First Step Act’s emphasis on reducing recidivism through educational and vocational training programs is an area many reformers hope a new Trump administration would continue to support. However, Trump’s focus on “law and order” could influence funding priorities and the scope of such initiatives.

• Prison Funding and Oversight: A Trump presidency might increase funding for certain law enforcement agencies, but prison conditions and oversight may not receive equal attention. The approach could involve enhanced security rather than expanded funding for mental health care, vocational training, or rehabilitative programming.

• Role of Private Prisons: Trump has previously supported private prisons, advocating for their cost-effectiveness in managing the federal inmate population. The reliance on private facilities has been a contentious issue, as evidence shows that private prisons often prioritize profit over humane conditions and rehabilitation efforts. A new Trump administration may be inclined to increase or maintain the role of private prisons, potentially affecting reform efforts aimed at improving conditions within these facilities.

Reentry and Post-Release Support: Implications for Formerly Incarcerated Individuals

Reentry policies and support for formerly incarcerated individuals are crucial in reducing recidivism. Without stable housing, employment, and access to community support, many released individuals face significant challenges reintegrating into society. However, Trump’s track record suggests a mixed approach:

• Job Training Programs: The First Step Act included provisions to support job training, and a Trump administration may continue similar programs. However, given Trump’s emphasis on deregulation, it’s unclear if he would invest further in post-release support or leave much of it to the private sector and nonprofits.

• Restrictions on Public Assistance and Housing: Trump’s previous administration attempted to limit access to public assistance for certain individuals, and reentry support may not be prioritized. This could impact released individuals’ ability to access housing and employment support, potentially undermining efforts to reduce recidivism.

Law Enforcement and Community-Police Relations

Trump’s often staunch support of law enforcement has been evident, and a second term may involve increased resources for policing rather than systemic changes to policing practices. This approach could impact community-police relations, especially in underserved communities that experience higher arrest rates.

• Increased Police Funding: Rather than emphasizing community-based policing or training on de-escalation techniques, Trump may continue prioritizing higher police budgets and traditional crime-control methods, as did the Biden administration.

• Qualified Immunity: Trump has not advocated for changes to qualified immunity, the legal doctrine that often shields law enforcement officers from lawsuits for actions taken in the line of duty. Retaining this doctrine could make it challenging to hold officers accountable for misconduct, potentially hindering community-police trust.

Public Sentiment and the Criminal Justice Reform Movement

Public support for criminal justice reform has grown significantly, with bipartisan coalitions advocating for changes to sentencing, parole, and reentry support. While Trump did back the First Step Act, a second term might see shifts in response to public opinion and political dynamics. Some key aspects include:

• Reactionary Policies: A perceived surge in violent crime could prompt Trump to adopt reactionary policies favoring punishment over rehabilitation, especially if there is political pressure to address public safety.

• Polarization of the Reform Movement: Trump’s presidency may polarize the reform movement, with activists intensifying calls for change while some conservative lawmakers push for stricter sentencing and law enforcement practices.

A Pivotal Moment for Criminal Justice Reform

Another Trump presidency could bring a mix of reform and retraction. While the First Step Act set a foundation, the direction of a new Trump administration remains uncertain, balancing between a desire to maintain “law and order” and the potential political appeal of modest reforms. Criminal justice reform advocates must be vigilant and prepared to engage with policymakers, hold the administration accountable, and sustain bipartisan momentum for long-term change.

In this unpredictable landscape, a Trump presidency may present both challenges and opportunities, with the future of American criminal justice reform hanging in the balance.